Happy Lunar New Year from the USC US-China Institute!
GDP Growth in 2020
The coronavirus is shrinking all major economies except China's.
October 22, 2020
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COVID-19 forced people to stay home. Businesses have closed and millions are out of work. The global economic impact has been huge. China's economy fell dramatically in the spring (its worst performance in decades), but its use of mandatory testing, quarantine policies, and city-wide lockdowns has allowed it to reopen earlier and more completely than the U.S.
China has experienced small outbreaks in recent months, but had just 16 new cases yesterday while the U.S. had 60,315. Because of this, forecasters predict that China will be the only country to still have positive GDP growth at year's end.
The U.S. economy is sputtering, in part, because it is more dependent on services, including many which are traditionally rendered face to face. China’s economy is also now dependent on services, but manufacturing is a relatively bigger share of its economy and was easier to restart. Back on March 6, 2020 Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist and former economic advisor to Pres. Obama, warned of this in a New York Times op-ed.
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