"The East Asian Power Transition: Prospects for Peace" with Robert Ross

 In 2013 the United States and China had restored regional stability and great power cooperation because each power adjusted its policies in response to the other’s coercive policy toward their respective allies.  Third-party coercive diplomacy was the critical element in both the heightened regional instability from 2010-2012 and in the restoration of U.S.-Chinese cooperation in 2013. U.S. policy toward North Korea had challenged Chinese security in Northeast Asia and heightened the risk of war on China’s northeast border, causing China to re-think the merits of its support for North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

 

The Sino-Japanese territorial dispute challenged U.S. interests in regional stability and risked U.S. involvement in hostilities with Japan against China over materially insignificant islands, causing the United States to re-think its support for Japanese policy.  Nonetheless, since 2013 ongoing great power competition and alliance politics contributed to heightened pressure for each great to expand its alliance commitments, undermining the prospects for mutual restraint.