What China Can Learn from Thailand

In an op-ed in The Diplomat, USC international relations specialist Daniel Lynch notes that state-society tensions are rising in China and that China's government has become more repressive in response. Lynch suggests that this approach could cause China to experience the same cycles of demonstrations and violence Thailand's experienced, thus hammering economic growth and causing people to doubt future prospects. China's government, Lynch says, needs to prepare China for democratization, not intensify repression.

The article begins,

During a visit to Beijing in early May, I was struck by the large number of Chinese academics who predicted that the ‘tension’ between state and society would be the most important problem facing China in the coming decade. Intellectuals have often criticized the party-state, while elements of urban society occasionally exploded in dramatic demonstrations. But both proved ineffective in convincing Communist Party elites to pursue political reform. Indeed, such outbursts seemed to harden the elites against reform.

Perhaps they calculated that economic growth and the cultivation of nationalism would suffice to neutralize calls for change. Yet economic growth and proliferation of the communication channels necessary for cultivating nationalism also mobilize society into political action by changing the mind-sets and interests of its members. The Chinese academics I spoke with in May all recognize that this is a point China has now reached in its history. People from all segments of society are richer than ever before, but also better educated and more aware of social problems such as inequality, corruption, and pollution. They connect the dots and understand how these problems all have human causes. They have well-developed sociological imaginations that are increasingly critical, and they are now pressuring the party-state.

Yet the party-state obstinately holds fast against change.

Thailand reached a similar point sometime in the 1990s. The two countries are different in many ways. But even if at slightly less than 70 million people, Thailand is about the size of a Chinese province – and has never been ruled by a communist party – it has much to teach Chinese elites about the risks entailed in resisting political change.

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