This document, an intelligence research report, asks: "How did China get to this point?" The report explores in detail the impact of the crisis on China's domestic and foreign policy, and measures the international reaction to the crackdown. The report also provides brief biographic sketches of China's new leaders including Jiang Zemin, Song Ping, Li Ruihuan, and Ding Guangen. Among the judgments reached is that the situation in China would "remain unsettled at least until Deng Xiaoping and other party elders die."
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Original source: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/documents/index.html#d35
