Are many East Asian nations feeling increasingly threatened, especially from China? It certainly appears so, and numerous observers see rising tensions in which war is possible and perhaps imminent. Over the last few months, North Korea has tested missiles and threatened the United States with nuclear war. China spars regularly with Japan over ownership of a group of disputed islands, and with several Southeast Asian countries over other sparsely inhabited rocks in the South China Sea. Furthermore, the US “rebalance” to Asia has been justified as being central to continued stability in the region. But at the same time, none of these rivalries have broken out into actual military conflict, the Chinese military has not fired a shot since 1988 and the Japanese have not been involved in any combat since 1945. This talk will explore the current regional security dynamics and make an argument that – despite unresolved disputes – the region is more stable than at any time in the past half-century.
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