For 30 years, in stark contrast to earlier decades, East Asia has been relatively peaceful. No interstate war has occurred since 1988, and the number and intensity of civil wars has been much reduced. Three-quarters of global battle deaths during 1946-79 occurred in East Asia; only one-twentieth after 1980. How can this be explained? By internal changes in the region? Or by the influence of external powers? Stein Tønnesson will examine the issue and suggest that the peace has developed as a cumulative effect of a succession of national priority shifts in each East Asian nation.
Stein Tønnesson is a historian and research professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Presently, he is a Jennings Randolph senior fellow at the US Institute of Peace, Washington, DC, where he is writing a book to explain the East Asian peace. He leads a research program on the same topic at Uppsala University, Sweden. His recent publications include "What Is It that Best Explains the East Asian Peace Since 1979?" in the Asian Perspective (2009); Vietnam 1946: How the War Began (2010); and "China's Changing Role in the South China Sea," in the Harvard Asia Quarterly (Winter 2010).
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