China’s high saving rate drives its enormous trade surplus. For balance to be restored to the global payments system, China must consume more and save less. Yet defying all precedents, China’s saving rate just continues to rise – to 52.6% of GDP in 2010. What will it take to turn the tide? The argument to be developed in this presentation is that the upward push of the saving rate has rested on a combination of extraordinarily rapid GDP growth and a decline in the dependent share in population. On both counts, a turning point is at hand.
Speaker:
Dr. Calla Wiemer is Visiting Scholar at the U.S.-China Institute of the University of Southern California. She has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin and has taught at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and the National University of Singapore. Her research and consulting have spanned most aspects of the Chinese economy. Her opinion pieces on China’s imbalances and exchange rate policy have appeared in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere. She is currently writing a textbook titled “Macroeconomics for Emerging East Asia.”
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